Peter Drucker made this optimistic comment about change: "The entrepreneur always searches for change, responds to it, and exploits it as an opportunity." While this may generally be true, nothing puts a damper on entrepreneurialism more effectively than a good old fashioned recession. The potential for lost opportunity is, of course, especially high during periods of economic transformation. Exactly as markets, industries and economies are being re-structured, many entrepreneurial companies hunker down, focusing on strengths and cutting costs rather than embracing change as the mating ground of future growth. How do we leverage the convergences of a tumultuous marketplace and anxiety about the future, to craft meaningful strategies and research programs that help companies capture the future?
APPROACH
We will use a pre-existing set of economic recovery scenarios developed by GBN -- the global leader in Scenario Planning and the world's largest dedicated scenario consultancy -- to explore areas of current market, industry and product opportunity. More specifically, we'll exploit the scenarios to creatively identify the primary drivers of growth over the next several years. Through an engaging set of interactive exercises, participants will explore critical uncertainties surrounding current economic and competitive shifts, and then build a plan for addressing these. This set of questions will guide the conversations about the scenarios we will discuss:
- What will success look like in each scenario and what kinds of companies are best situated to capture the opportunities?
- What capabilities would your firm most want to have in each future scenario?
- What markets and which customers will you serve in each scenario?
- What key questions need to be answered in each scenario? Where will you seek the answers?
- What kind of ‘leading indicators’ would you want to track to determine if a particular scenario were going to come true?
GOALS
We will work collaboratively to generate:
- Greater appreciation of implications and options in each scenario
- Enhanced understanding of market and industry trends in each scenario
- Itemized lists of differentiated capabilities in each scenario
- Consumer insights in each scenario
STRUCTURE
The session activities include the following:
- Orientation: outline workshop objectives and introduce the concept of Scenario Planning
- Exploration: small groups review, discuss, and reorder scenario components to create refined scenario sketches.
- Scenario Thinking: small groups review detailed scenario stories, paying attention to likely events, leading indicators and headlines researchers might expect if a given scenario were evolving.
- Identify Issues: small groups explore how important issues (e.g. strategy choices, organizational issues, risks and opportunities) play out differently across scenarios.
- Craft plan: Small groups devise a research program to build a deeper understanding of the future options in each scenario.
- Combine Learning: participants gather to discuss insights, questions, priorities, perspectives and potential directions emerging as a result of the scenario conversations.
BENEFITS
The workshop provides a great opportunity to explore the use of Scenarios and Scenario Planning in framing a client's situation and in envisioning the many different research avenues, options and choices which different visions of the future create.
PARTICIPANTS
Researchers, strategists, designers and others interested in managing research agendas, options, choices, and growth opportunities under conditions of rapid change.
ORGANIZERS
Kelly Costello
With 13 yrs of research and consulting experience, Kelly has expertise in the complete innovation lifecycle—from the fuzzy front end to market-ready products, services and systems. Her professional experience within both product development and information services firms provides a solid basis for understanding the innovation challenges facing clients. She has consulted with clients from a broad range of industries, including health care, consumer goods, telecommunications and others. Kelly holds an MDes from the Institute of Design, and a double major in visual communication and Anthropology from the University of Memphis.
Chris Ertel
Chris is a partner with Monitor Group in the San Francisco office, serving as a West Coast account leader for Doblin. During 2002-2008, Chris was co-head of the consulting practice at GBN, where he remains a senior advisor. Since 1997, Chris has led or supported dozens of strategy and innovation consulting projects with Fortune 500 companies in a wide range of industries, including financial services, consumer goods, automotive, workplace design, pharmaceuticals, and others. A social scientist by training, he holds an MA in cultural anthropology and a PhD in demography from the University of California at Berkeley, where he has also taught as an adjunct faculty member.
Don Derosby
Don is a senior practitioner at GBN, and an expert in scenario thinking and in system dynamics, a set of methods that allow decision-makers to see how business choices cascade down through entire organizations. Don has extensive experience in analyzing industry attractiveness, competitive positioning, corporate culture and capability building, as well as in coaching executives through difficult choices. Since joining GBN in 1996, Don has focused on corporate and public sector projects in health sciences, professional services, commodities, and national defense. Don holds a BS in speech from Northwestern University, an MA in anthropology from the University of Chicago, and an MBA from Harvard.
Jessie Gatto
Jessie joined Doblin one year ago as a consultant. Her focus on innovation concept development and design has provided opportunities to work on a wide range of projects in healthcare, consumer goods, medical services, and distribution. Prior to joining Doblin, Jessie worked for a furniture systems manufacturer, where she performed primary and secondary research and helped to develop a design planning training course. She has also held design planning positions in interior architecture, city/transportation planning, and web development. Jessie holds a BS in physical science and the humanities from the University of Chicago, and an MDes from the IIT Institute of Design.
NOTE: This workshop will take place on site at Doblin/Monitor, 111 E. Wacker Drive, Suite 300, a short 5-10 minute walk from the main conference venue. Maps will be provided.
